{"id":58,"date":"2009-03-10T11:33:56","date_gmt":"2009-03-10T11:33:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/openstream.tv\/zanzare\/?p=58"},"modified":"2014-03-17T09:33:16","modified_gmt":"2014-03-17T09:33:16","slug":"piero-poletti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.openstream.tv\/zanzare\/piero-poletti\/","title":{"rendered":"Piero Poletti"},"content":{"rendered":"

Estimating the basic reproductive number and the impact of containment measures during the Italian chikungunya outbreak<\/strong>
\nCaterina Rizzo, Piero Poletti2, Marco Ajelli, Thomas Seyler,4, Andrea Pugliese3, Marta Luisa Ciofi
\ndegli Atti1,5, Stefania Salmaso, Stefano Merler<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

    \n
  1. National Center for Epidemiology Surveillance and Health Promotion, Istituto Superiore di Sanit\u00e0, Rome, Italy<\/li>\n
  2. Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy<\/li>\n
  3. Department of Mathematics, University of Trento, Trento, Italy<\/li>\n
  4. European Programme for Intervention Epidemiology Training (EPIET), European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), Stockholm, Sweden<\/li>\n
  5. Ospedale Pediatrico \u201cBambino Ges\u00f9\u201d, Roma, Italy<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Abstract<\/strong>
    \nDuring summer 2007, Italy experienced the first outbreak of Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) documented in a temperate climate country. The infection is transmitted through the bite of an
    \ninfected Aedes mosquito. A total of 217 laboratory confirmed CHIKV cases were reported from 15 July 2007 to 28 September 2007. In order to assess control measures implemented we investigated the transmission dynamics of the CHIKV outbreak. As a first step, we estimated the basic reproduction number (R0) of the outbreak.
    \nWe used a system of ordinary differential equations to model the dynamics of the outbreak and assumed homogenous mixing between host and vector populations. We used two methods to
    \nestimate R0. The first method relied on the estimation of the intrinsic growth rate and parameters such as the duration of viremia in humans and the extrinsic and intrinsic incubation period. The
    \nsecond method required an estimate of the biting rate and the total number of vectors. We estimated these parameters by fitting the model to the epidemic curve using a least-square algorithm.
    \nUsing the intrinsic growth rate, R0 had a mean value of 3.62 (95%CI: 3.11-4.21). Fitting the model to the epidemic curve, R0 had a mean value of 3.93 (95%CI: 3.17-4.79). The two distributions of
    \nR0 were not significantly different.
    \nThese results suggest that without vector control measures the attack rate in the initial affected villages could have been as high as 90%. Considering the effectiveness of control measures
    \nimplemented during the outbreak, our results strongly suggest that the use of pyrethroids against adult mosquitoes and anti-larval products from 18 August 2007 onwards, together with an active
    \ninformation campaign on personal protection, limited the outbreak.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Estimating the basic reproductive number and the impact of containment measures during the Italian chikungunya outbreak Caterina Rizzo, Piero Poletti2, Marco Ajelli, Thomas Seyler,4, Andrea Pugliese3, Marta Luisa Ciofi degli Atti1,5, Stefania Salmaso, Stefano Merler   National Center for Epidemiology Surveillance and Health Promotion, Istituto Superiore di Sanit\u00e0, Rome, Italy Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy … Continue reading Piero Poletti<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[22],"class_list":["post-58","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-10_th_march","tag-chikungunya"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.openstream.tv\/zanzare\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.openstream.tv\/zanzare\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.openstream.tv\/zanzare\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.openstream.tv\/zanzare\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.openstream.tv\/zanzare\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=58"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.openstream.tv\/zanzare\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":89,"href":"https:\/\/www.openstream.tv\/zanzare\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58\/revisions\/89"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.openstream.tv\/zanzare\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=58"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.openstream.tv\/zanzare\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=58"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.openstream.tv\/zanzare\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=58"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}